Journalist and opinion maker Tsedale Lemma: “Whether the conflict spreads or not, things can hardly get any worse for Tigrayan civilians. Whether they die of a bullet or of a siege...” in The New York Times: Fighting Erupts in Northern Ethiopia, Shattering Cease-Fire

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Dear reader,

Unfortunately, yesterday war has flared up at the Tigray border. At this stage, it is not sure whether this will settle down or evolve into another full-scale war.

Some other essential media pieces:

Reuters: Fighting erupts along border of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region

Associated Press: ‘Large-scale’ fighting shatters lull in Ethiopia’s Tigray

BBC: Ethiopia's Tigray war: Fresh fighting shatters humanitarian truce

UMD media: Analysis by Kjetil Tronvoll

The New York Times: Fighting Erupts in Northern Ethiopia, Shattering Cease-Fire

In a short twitter thread, colleague Kjetil Tronvoll also summarised the situation.

Kjetil Tronvoll:

Are we inching towards a new large-scale military offensive in northern Ethiopia? Multiple sources are reporting massive ENDF (Ethiopian army) troop build-up along the Tigray borders, at the same time as the African Union (AU)-led peace mediation has stalled.

PM Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia has so far played the AU - US - EU peace envoys skillfully, simultaneously as he has mitigated the domestic political pressure. If a new large-scale offensive on Tigray is launched, what will the international community do? Do they have any “plan B” for failed mediation?

Question: ENDF or Amhara state militia? ENDF has lost a lot of men and equipment.

KT: Addis has worked diligently to recruit and train new troops since the declaration of «humanitarian truce» earlier this year.

Question: Still, heavy equipment must have been a problem, who supplied this?

KT: Usual suspects…

https://twitter.com/KjetilTronvoll/status/1561967296595345409

https://twitter.com/KjetilTronvoll/status/1562692574892007424

https://twitter.com/wdavison10/status/1562429585761124357

https://twitter.com/NaudtsJozef/status/1562532773826789378

https://twitter.com/NaudtsJozef/status/1562533004865458179

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Jan Nyssen
Professor of Physical Geography
Department of Geography
Ghent University
Belgium
(0032) 9 264 46 23
https://publons.com/researcher/453437/jan-nyssen/publications/